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Al Najaf vs Al Shorta — Iraqi League 2020

Al Najaf
Al Najaf
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Shorta
Al Shorta
4/8/2021Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 27Al Najaf Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Al Najaf26%
×Draw27%
Al Shorta47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Najaf
0.98
Al Shorta
1.41

Al Shorta creates 44% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 109 away

creates per match

Al Najaf
1.17
Al Shorta
1.76

allows per match

Al Najaf
1.05
Al Shorta
0.79

finishing

Al Najaf+0.00on par
Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Najaf ↓

Al Shorta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Najaf or draw
53%
Al Najaf or Al Shorta
73%
Draw or Al Shorta
74%

Winning margin

Al Najaf wins by 2+
9%
Al Shorta wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Al Najaf 1+ goals
62%
Al Najaf 2+ goals
26%
Al Najaf 3+ goals
8%
Al Shorta 1+ goals
76%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
41%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Al Najaf (draw refunded)
36%
Al Shorta (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Najaf at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.05 · 111 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 1.76, concedes 0.79 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Najaf attack 1.17 + Al Shorta defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.98

Al Shorta attack 1.76 + Al Najaf defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Najaf scores more
26%
level
27%
Al Shorta scores more
47%

Al Shorta at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Najaf 3–1 Al Shorta

Al Najaf beat Al Shorta 3-1 in Iraqi League on April 8, 2021.

The match was played at Al Najaf Stadium in Najaf.