Al Najaf 0–2 Al Quwa Al Jawiya: Result & Stats

Al Najaf

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

M. Abu Taha 52'

M. Jawad 12'

11/22/2025

Iraqi League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Al Najaf28%

×Draw28%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al NajafExpected goals in this matchAl Quwa Al Jawiya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.34

Al Najaf

0.99

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.34

Al Quwa Al Jawiya creates 35% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 29 away

1.07

creates per match

1.21

1.48

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Al Najaf

1.07

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.21

allows per match

Al Najaf

1.48

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Najaf+0.00on par

Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Najaf ↓

Al Quwa Al Jawiya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Al Najaf or draw

55%

Al Najaf or Al Quwa Al Jawiya

72%

Draw or Al Quwa Al Jawiya

72%

Winning margin

Al Najaf wins by 2+

10%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Al Najaf 1+ goals

63%

Al Najaf 2+ goals

26%

Al Najaf 3+ goals

8%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals

74%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals

39%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Al Najaf (draw refunded)

38%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Najaf at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.48 · 27 matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.90 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Najaf attack 1.07 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.99

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 1.21 + Al Najaf defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Najaf scores more

28%

level

28%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more

45%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Quwa Al Jawiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

M. Jawad

52'

M. Abu Taha

Al

Manager: Hasan Ahmad

Manager: Wesam Rizik