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Al Najaf vs Al-Qasim — Iraqi League 2020

Al Najaf
Al Najaf
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Qasim
Al-Qasim
12/24/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 11Al Najaf Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Al Najaf45%
×Draw28%
Al-Qasim27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Najaf
1.32
Al-Qasim
0.95

Al Najaf creates 39% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 109 away

creates per match

Al Najaf
1.17
Al-Qasim
0.85

allows per match

Al Najaf
1.05
Al-Qasim
1.48

finishing

Al Najaf+0.00on par
Al-Qasim+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Najaf ↓

Al-Qasim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Najaf or draw
73%
Al Najaf or Al-Qasim
72%
Draw or Al-Qasim
55%

Winning margin

Al Najaf wins by 2+
21%
Al-Qasim wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Najaf 1+ goals
73%
Al Najaf 2+ goals
38%
Al Najaf 3+ goals
15%
Al-Qasim 1+ goals
61%
Al-Qasim 2+ goals
25%
Al-Qasim 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Najaf (draw refunded)
63%
Al-Qasim (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Najaf at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.05 · 111 matches

Al-Qasim away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.48 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Najaf attack 1.17 + Al-Qasim defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.32

Al-Qasim attack 0.85 + Al Najaf defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Najaf scores more
45%
level
28%
Al-Qasim scores more
27%

Al Najaf at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Najaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Najaf 1–0 Al-Qasim

Al Najaf beat Al-Qasim 1-0 in Iraqi League on December 24, 2023.

The match was played at Al Najaf Stadium in Najaf.