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Al Nahdha vs Hetten FC — Division 1 2018

Al Nahdha
Al Nahdha
FT
2 – 1
Hetten FC
Hetten FC
8/20/2019Division 1Division 1 · Round 1Prince Fahad bin Salman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Nahdha57%
×Draw23%
Hetten FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Nahdha
1.85
Hetten FC
0.99

Al Nahdha creates 87% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 19 away

creates per match

Al Nahdha
1.39
Hetten FC
0.89

allows per match

Al Nahdha
1.08
Hetten FC
2.32

finishing

Al Nahdha+0.00on par
Hetten FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Nahdha ↓

Hetten FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al Nahdha or draw
80%
Al Nahdha or Hetten FC
77%
Draw or Hetten FC
43%

Winning margin

Al Nahdha wins by 2+
33%
Hetten FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al Nahdha 1+ goals
84%
Al Nahdha 2+ goals
55%
Al Nahdha 3+ goals
28%
Hetten FC 1+ goals
63%
Hetten FC 2+ goals
26%
Hetten FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Nahdha (draw refunded)
74%
Hetten FC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Nahdha at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

Hetten FC away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Nahdha attack 1.39 + Hetten FC defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.85

Hetten FC attack 0.89 + Al Nahdha defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Al Nahdha scores more
57%
level
23%
Hetten FC scores more
20%

Al Nahdha at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Al Nahdha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Nahdha vs Hetten FC

Al Nahdha beat Hetten FC 2-1 in Division 1 on August 20, 2019.

The match was played at Prince Fahad bin Salman Stadium in Dammam.