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Al Nahdha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC — Division 1 2018

Al Nahdha
Al Nahdha
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1/17/2022Division 1Division 1 · Round 20Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Al Nahdha36%
×Draw28%
Al-Qadisiyah FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Nahdha
1.16
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 72 away

creates per match

Al Nahdha
1.39
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.24

allows per match

Al Nahdha
1.08
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0.92

finishing

Al Nahdha+0.00on par
Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Nahdha ↓

Al-Qadisiyah FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Nahdha or draw
64%
Al Nahdha or Al-Qadisiyah FC
72%
Draw or Al-Qadisiyah FC
64%

Winning margin

Al Nahdha wins by 2+
15%
Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al Nahdha 1+ goals
69%
Al Nahdha 2+ goals
32%
Al Nahdha 3+ goals
11%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals
69%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals
32%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Nahdha (draw refunded)
50%
Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Nahdha at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.92 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Nahdha attack 1.39 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.16

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.24 + Al Nahdha defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Nahdha scores more
36%
level
28%
Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more
36%

Al Nahdha at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Nahdha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Nahdha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC

Al Nahdha and Al-Qadisiyah FC drew 1-1 in Division 1 on January 17, 2022.

The match was played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Dammam.