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Al Nahdha vs Al Khaleej Saihat — Division 1 2018

Al Nahdha
Al Nahdha
FT
1 – 2
Al Khaleej Saihat
Al Khaleej Saihat
4/29/2021Division 1Division 1 · Round 34Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Al Nahdha39%
×Draw27%
Al Khaleej Saihat33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Nahdha
1.28
Al Khaleej Saihat
1.15

Al Nahdha creates 11% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 60 away

creates per match

Al Nahdha
1.39
Al Khaleej Saihat
1.22

allows per match

Al Nahdha
1.08
Al Khaleej Saihat
1.17

finishing

Al Nahdha+0.00on par
Al Khaleej Saihat+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Nahdha ↓

Al Khaleej Saihat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Nahdha or draw
67%
Al Nahdha or Al Khaleej Saihat
73%
Draw or Al Khaleej Saihat
61%

Winning margin

Al Nahdha wins by 2+
18%
Al Khaleej Saihat wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al Nahdha 1+ goals
72%
Al Nahdha 2+ goals
37%
Al Nahdha 3+ goals
14%
Al Khaleej Saihat 1+ goals
68%
Al Khaleej Saihat 2+ goals
32%
Al Khaleej Saihat 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Nahdha (draw refunded)
54%
Al Khaleej Saihat (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Nahdha at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.08 · 59 matches

Al Khaleej Saihat away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Nahdha attack 1.39 + Al Khaleej Saihat defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.22 + Al Nahdha defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Nahdha scores more
39%
level
27%
Al Khaleej Saihat scores more
33%

Al Nahdha at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Nahdha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Nahdha 1–2 Al Khaleej Saihat

Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al Nahdha 2-1 in Division 1 on April 29, 2021.

The match was played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Dammam.