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Al-Nahda vs Mrbat — Professional League 2019

Al-Nahda
Al-Nahda
FT
4 – 1
Mrbat
Mrbat
11/1/2020Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 26Al Nahdha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Al-Nahda66%
×Draw20%
Mrbat14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Nahda
2.04
Mrbat
0.81

Al-Nahda creates 152% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 13 away

creates per match

Al-Nahda
1.55
Mrbat
0.85

allows per match

Al-Nahda
0.78
Mrbat
2.54

finishing

Al-Nahda+0.00on par
Mrbat+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nahda ↓

Mrbat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al-Nahda or draw
86%
Al-Nahda or Mrbat
80%
Draw or Mrbat
34%

Winning margin

Al-Nahda wins by 2+
41%
Mrbat wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Al-Nahda 1+ goals
87%
Al-Nahda 2+ goals
60%
Al-Nahda 3+ goals
33%
Mrbat 1+ goals
56%
Mrbat 2+ goals
19%
Mrbat 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al-Nahda (draw refunded)
82%
Mrbat (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nahda at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.78 · 78 matches

Mrbat away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nahda attack 1.55 + Mrbat defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.04

Mrbat attack 0.85 + Al-Nahda defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Al-Nahda scores more
66%
level
20%
Mrbat scores more
14%

Al-Nahda at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Al-Nahda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Nahda vs Mrbat

Al-Nahda beat Mrbat 4-1 in Professional League on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Al Nahdha Stadium in Al-Buraimi.