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Al-Nahda vs Al Seeb — Professional League 2019

Al-Nahda
Al-Nahda
FT
1 – 3
Al Seeb
Al Seeb
12/15/2024Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 7Al Buraimi Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Al-Nahda31%
×Draw28%
Al Seeb42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Nahda
1.06
Al Seeb
1.29

Al Seeb creates 22% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 79 away

creates per match

Al-Nahda
1.55
Al Seeb
1.80

allows per match

Al-Nahda
0.78
Al Seeb
0.56

finishing

Al-Nahda+0.00on par
Al Seeb+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nahda ↓

Al Seeb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al-Nahda or draw
58%
Al-Nahda or Al Seeb
72%
Draw or Al Seeb
69%

Winning margin

Al-Nahda wins by 2+
12%
Al Seeb wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Al-Nahda 1+ goals
65%
Al-Nahda 2+ goals
29%
Al-Nahda 3+ goals
9%
Al Seeb 1+ goals
72%
Al Seeb 2+ goals
37%
Al Seeb 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al-Nahda (draw refunded)
42%
Al Seeb (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nahda at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.78 · 78 matches

Al Seeb away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.56 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nahda attack 1.55 + Al Seeb defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.06

Al Seeb attack 1.80 + Al-Nahda defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al-Nahda scores more
31%
level
28%
Al Seeb scores more
42%

Al Seeb at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Seeb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Professional League: Al-Nahda 1–3 Al Seeb

Al Seeb beat Al-Nahda 3-1 in Professional League on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Al Buraimi Sports Complex in Al Buraimi.