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Al Mourada vs Hilal Obayed — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Mourada
Al Mourada
FT
2 – 0
Hilal Obayed
Hilal Obayed
11/23/2018Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 1Karima Stadium (Karima)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al Mourada43%
×Draw30%
Hilal Obayed27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Mourada
1.16
Hilal Obayed
0.84

Al Mourada creates 38% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 56 away

creates per match

Al Mourada
1.00
Hilal Obayed
0.86

allows per match

Al Mourada
0.82
Hilal Obayed
1.32

finishing

Al Mourada+0.00on par
Hilal Obayed+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Mourada ↓

Hilal Obayed →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Mourada or draw
73%
Al Mourada or Hilal Obayed
70%
Draw or Hilal Obayed
57%

Winning margin

Al Mourada wins by 2+
18%
Hilal Obayed wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Mourada 1+ goals
69%
Al Mourada 2+ goals
32%
Al Mourada 3+ goals
11%
Hilal Obayed 1+ goals
57%
Hilal Obayed 2+ goals
21%
Hilal Obayed 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Mourada (draw refunded)
62%
Hilal Obayed (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Mourada at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Hilal Obayed away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Mourada attack 1.00 + Hilal Obayed defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Hilal Obayed attack 0.86 + Al Mourada defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Mourada scores more
43%
level
30%
Hilal Obayed scores more
27%

Al Mourada at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Mourada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Mourada 2–0 Hilal Obayed

Al Mourada beat Hilal Obayed 2-0 in Sudani Premier League on November 23, 2018.

The match was played at Karima Stadium (Karima).