Al Mourada 0–0 Hay Al Wadi: Result & Stats

Al Mourada

FT

0 – 0

Hay Al Wadi

2/26/2019

Sudani Premier League · Round 14Khartoum Stadium (Khartoum)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al Mourada40%

×Draw31%

Hay Al Wadi29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al MouradaExpected goals in this matchHay Al Wadi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.86

Al Mourada

1.06

Hay Al Wadi

0.86

Al Mourada creates 23% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 86 away

1.00

creates per match

0.90

0.82

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Al Mourada

1.00

Hay Al Wadi

0.90

allows per match

Al Mourada

0.82

Hay Al Wadi

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Mourada+0.00on par

Hay Al Wadi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Mourada ↓

Hay Al Wadi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Al Mourada or draw

71%

Al Mourada or Hay Al Wadi

69%

Draw or Hay Al Wadi

60%

Winning margin

Al Mourada wins by 2+

16%

Hay Al Wadi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al Mourada 1+ goals

65%

Al Mourada 2+ goals

29%

Al Mourada 3+ goals

9%

Hay Al Wadi 1+ goals

58%

Hay Al Wadi 2+ goals

21%

Hay Al Wadi 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Al Mourada (draw refunded)

58%

Hay Al Wadi (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Mourada at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Hay Al Wadi away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.13 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Mourada attack 1.00 + Hay Al Wadi defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Hay Al Wadi attack 0.90 + Al Mourada defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Mourada scores more

40%

level

31%

Hay Al Wadi scores more

29%

Al Mourada at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Mourada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff