Al Mourada 2–0 Hay Al Arab: Result & Stats

Al Mourada

FT

2 – 0

Hay Al Arab

7/3/2019

Sudani Premier League · Relegation Round - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al Mourada41%

×Draw32%

Hay Al Arab27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al MouradaExpected goals in this matchHay Al Arab

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.81

Al Mourada

1.06

Hay Al Arab

0.81

Al Mourada creates 31% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 75 away

1.00

creates per match

0.81

0.82

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Al Mourada

1.00

Hay Al Arab

0.81

allows per match

Al Mourada

0.82

Hay Al Arab

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Mourada+0.00on par

Hay Al Arab+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Mourada ↓

Hay Al Arab →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Al Mourada or draw

73%

Al Mourada or Hay Al Arab

68%

Draw or Hay Al Arab

59%

Winning margin

Al Mourada wins by 2+

16%

Hay Al Arab wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Al Mourada 1+ goals

65%

Al Mourada 2+ goals

29%

Al Mourada 3+ goals

9%

Hay Al Arab 1+ goals

56%

Hay Al Arab 2+ goals

19%

Hay Al Arab 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al Mourada (draw refunded)

60%

Hay Al Arab (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Mourada at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Hay Al Arab away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.11 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Mourada attack 1.00 + Hay Al Arab defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Hay Al Arab attack 0.81 + Al Mourada defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Mourada scores more

41%

level

32%

Hay Al Arab scores more

27%

Al Mourada at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Mourada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff