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Al Mourada vs Al Merreikh — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Mourada
Al Mourada
FT
2 – 6
Al Merreikh
Al Merreikh
12/27/2018Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 5Khartoum Stadium (Khartoum)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al Mourada24%
×Draw29%
Al Merreikh47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Mourada
0.81
Al Merreikh
1.25

Al Merreikh creates 54% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 65 away

creates per match

Al Mourada
1.00
Al Merreikh
1.68

allows per match

Al Mourada
0.82
Al Merreikh
0.62

finishing

Al Mourada+0.00on par
Al Merreikh+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Mourada ↓

Al Merreikh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Mourada or draw
53%
Al Mourada or Al Merreikh
71%
Draw or Al Merreikh
76%

Winning margin

Al Mourada wins by 2+
8%
Al Merreikh wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Al Mourada 1+ goals
56%
Al Mourada 2+ goals
19%
Al Mourada 3+ goals
5%
Al Merreikh 1+ goals
71%
Al Merreikh 2+ goals
36%
Al Merreikh 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al Mourada (draw refunded)
34%
Al Merreikh (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Mourada at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Al Merreikh away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.62 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Mourada attack 1.00 + Al Merreikh defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.81

Al Merreikh attack 1.68 + Al Mourada defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Mourada scores more
24%
level
29%
Al Merreikh scores more
47%

Al Merreikh at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al Merreikh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Mourada 2–6 Al Merreikh

Al Merreikh beat Al Mourada 6-2 in Sudani Premier League on December 27, 2018.

The match was played at Khartoum Stadium (Khartoum).