Al Mourada 2–1 Al-Ahly Merowe: Result & Stats

Al Mourada

FT

2 – 1

Al-Ahly Merowe

2/2/2019

Sudani Premier League · Round 11Khartoum Stadium (Khartoum)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al Mourada46%

×Draw30%

Al-Ahly Merowe24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al MouradaExpected goals in this matchAl-Ahly Merowe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.76

Al Mourada

1.18

Al-Ahly Merowe

0.76

Al Mourada creates 55% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 74 away

1.00

creates per match

0.70

0.82

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Al Mourada

1.00

Al-Ahly Merowe

0.70

allows per match

Al Mourada

0.82

Al-Ahly Merowe

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Mourada+0.00on par

Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Mourada ↓

Al-Ahly Merowe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Al Mourada or draw

76%

Al Mourada or Al-Ahly Merowe

70%

Draw or Al-Ahly Merowe

54%

Winning margin

Al Mourada wins by 2+

20%

Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Al Mourada 1+ goals

69%

Al Mourada 2+ goals

33%

Al Mourada 3+ goals

12%

Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals

53%

Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals

18%

Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Al Mourada (draw refunded)

66%

Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Mourada at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Al-Ahly Merowe away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.35 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Mourada attack 1.00 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.70 + Al Mourada defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Mourada scores more

46%

level

30%

Al-Ahly Merowe scores more

24%

Al Mourada at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Mourada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff