Al Morooj 1–0 Al-Suqoor: Result & Stats

Al Morooj

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Al-Suqoor

12/8/2023

Premier League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Al Morooj52%

×Draw25%

Al-Suqoor24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al MoroojExpected goals in this matchAl-Suqoor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.00

Al Morooj

1.61

Al-Suqoor

1.00

Al Morooj creates 61% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 35 away

1.31

creates per match

0.74

1.27

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Al Morooj

1.31

Al-Suqoor

0.74

allows per match

Al Morooj

1.27

Al-Suqoor

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Morooj+0.00on par

Al-Suqoor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Morooj ↓

Al-Suqoor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Al Morooj or draw

76%

Al Morooj or Al-Suqoor

75%

Draw or Al-Suqoor

48%

Winning margin

Al Morooj wins by 2+

27%

Al-Suqoor wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al Morooj 1+ goals

80%

Al Morooj 2+ goals

48%

Al Morooj 3+ goals

22%

Al-Suqoor 1+ goals

63%

Al-Suqoor 2+ goals

26%

Al-Suqoor 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Al Morooj (draw refunded)

69%

Al-Suqoor (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Morooj at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

Al-Suqoor away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.91 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Morooj attack 1.31 + Al-Suqoor defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.61

Al-Suqoor attack 0.74 + Al Morooj defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Al Morooj scores more

52%

level

25%

Al-Suqoor scores more

24%

Al Morooj at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al Morooj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff