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Al Morooj vs Al Mahdia — Premier League 2019

Al Morooj
Al Morooj
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Mahdia
Al Mahdia
2/28/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · East - 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Al Morooj60%
×Draw23%
Al Mahdia17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Morooj
1.80
Al Mahdia
0.85

Al Morooj creates 112% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 7 away

creates per match

Al Morooj
1.31
Al Mahdia
0.43

allows per match

Al Morooj
1.27
Al Mahdia
2.29

finishing

Al Morooj+0.00on par
Al Mahdia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Morooj ↓

Al Mahdia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Al Morooj or draw
83%
Al Morooj or Al Mahdia
77%
Draw or Al Mahdia
40%

Winning margin

Al Morooj wins by 2+
34%
Al Mahdia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al Morooj 1+ goals
83%
Al Morooj 2+ goals
54%
Al Morooj 3+ goals
27%
Al Mahdia 1+ goals
57%
Al Mahdia 2+ goals
21%
Al Mahdia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Morooj (draw refunded)
77%
Al Mahdia (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Morooj at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

Al Mahdia away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Morooj attack 1.31 + Al Mahdia defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.80

Al Mahdia attack 0.43 + Al Morooj defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Al Morooj scores more
60%
level
23%
Al Mahdia scores more
17%

Al Morooj at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Al Morooj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Morooj 1–0 Al Mahdia

Al Morooj beat Al Mahdia 1-0 in Premier League on February 28, 2025.