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Al Morooj vs Al Branes — Premier League 2019

Al Morooj
Al Morooj
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Al Branes
Al Branes
4/7/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · East - 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Al Morooj55%
×Draw23%
Al Branes22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Morooj
1.85
Al Branes
1.08

Al Morooj creates 71% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 10 away

creates per match

Al Morooj
1.31
Al Branes
0.90

allows per match

Al Morooj
1.27
Al Branes
2.40

finishing

Al Morooj+0.00on par
Al Branes+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Morooj ↓

Al Branes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Al Morooj or draw
78%
Al Morooj or Al Branes
77%
Draw or Al Branes
45%

Winning margin

Al Morooj wins by 2+
32%
Al Branes wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Morooj 1+ goals
84%
Al Morooj 2+ goals
55%
Al Morooj 3+ goals
28%
Al Branes 1+ goals
66%
Al Branes 2+ goals
29%
Al Branes 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al Morooj (draw refunded)
72%
Al Branes (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Morooj at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

Al Branes away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Morooj attack 1.31 + Al Branes defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.85

Al Branes attack 0.90 + Al Morooj defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Al Morooj scores more
55%
level
23%
Al Branes scores more
22%

Al Morooj at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al Morooj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Morooj 1–3 Al Branes

Al Branes beat Al Morooj 3-1 in Premier League on April 7, 2025.