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AL Mokawloon vs Ismaily SC — Premier League 2018

AL Mokawloon
AL Mokawloon
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ismaily SC
Ismaily SC
12/23/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Arab Contractors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

AL Mokawloon49%
×Draw27%
Ismaily SC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AL Mokawloon
1.42
Ismaily SC
0.89

AL Mokawloon creates 60% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 134 away

creates per match

AL Mokawloon
1.65
Ismaily SC
0.78

allows per match

AL Mokawloon
1.00
Ismaily SC
1.18

finishing

AL Mokawloon+0.00on par
Ismaily SC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AL Mokawloon ↓

Ismaily SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

AL Mokawloon or draw
76%
AL Mokawloon or Ismaily SC
73%
Draw or Ismaily SC
51%

Winning margin

AL Mokawloon wins by 2+
24%
Ismaily SC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AL Mokawloon 1+ goals
76%
AL Mokawloon 2+ goals
41%
AL Mokawloon 3+ goals
17%
Ismaily SC 1+ goals
59%
Ismaily SC 2+ goals
22%
Ismaily SC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

AL Mokawloon (draw refunded)
68%
Ismaily SC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AL Mokawloon at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Ismaily SC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.18 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AL Mokawloon attack 1.65 + Ismaily SC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.42

Ismaily SC attack 0.78 + AL Mokawloon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

AL Mokawloon scores more
49%
level
27%
Ismaily SC scores more
24%

AL Mokawloon at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "AL Mokawloon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: AL Mokawloon 2–0 Ismaily SC

AL Mokawloon beat Ismaily SC 2-0 in Premier League on December 23, 2019.

The match was played at Arab Contractors Stadium in Cairo.