Al Mojzel 1–0 Al Taee: Result & Stats | Division 1

Al Mojzel

FT

1 – 0

Al Taee

2/4/2020

Division 1 · Round 23Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Al Mojzel29%

×Draw27%

Al Taee44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al MojzelExpected goals in this matchAl Taee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.40

Al Mojzel

1.08

Al Taee

1.40

Al Taee creates 30% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 76 away

1.05

creates per match

1.20

1.59

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Al Mojzel

1.05

Al Taee

1.20

allows per match

Al Mojzel

1.59

Al Taee

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Mojzel+0.00on par

Al Taee+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Mojzel ↓

Al Taee →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Al Mojzel or draw

56%

Al Mojzel or Al Taee

73%

Draw or Al Taee

71%

Winning margin

Al Mojzel wins by 2+

11%

Al Taee wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Al Mojzel 1+ goals

66%

Al Mojzel 2+ goals

29%

Al Mojzel 3+ goals

10%

Al Taee 1+ goals

75%

Al Taee 2+ goals

41%

Al Taee 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Al Mojzel (draw refunded)

40%

Al Taee (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Mojzel at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

Al Taee away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Mojzel attack 1.05 + Al Taee defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Al Taee attack 1.20 + Al Mojzel defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Mojzel scores more

29%

level

27%

Al Taee scores more

44%

Al Taee at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Taee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff