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Al Mojzel vs Al Khaleej Saihat — Division 1 2018

Al Mojzel
Al Mojzel
FT
1 – 1
Al Khaleej Saihat
Al Khaleej Saihat
8/20/2019Division 1Division 1 · Round 1Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Al Mojzel30%
×Draw27%
Al Khaleej Saihat44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Mojzel
1.11
Al Khaleej Saihat
1.41

Al Khaleej Saihat creates 27% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 60 away

creates per match

Al Mojzel
1.05
Al Khaleej Saihat
1.22

allows per match

Al Mojzel
1.59
Al Khaleej Saihat
1.17

finishing

Al Mojzel+0.00on par
Al Khaleej Saihat+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Mojzel ↓

Al Khaleej Saihat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Mojzel or draw
56%
Al Mojzel or Al Khaleej Saihat
73%
Draw or Al Khaleej Saihat
70%

Winning margin

Al Mojzel wins by 2+
12%
Al Khaleej Saihat wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Al Mojzel 1+ goals
67%
Al Mojzel 2+ goals
30%
Al Mojzel 3+ goals
10%
Al Khaleej Saihat 1+ goals
76%
Al Khaleej Saihat 2+ goals
41%
Al Khaleej Saihat 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Al Mojzel (draw refunded)
40%
Al Khaleej Saihat (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Mojzel at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

Al Khaleej Saihat away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Mojzel attack 1.05 + Al Khaleej Saihat defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11

Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.22 + Al Mojzel defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Mojzel scores more
30%
level
27%
Al Khaleej Saihat scores more
44%

Al Khaleej Saihat at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Khaleej Saihat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Mojzel 1 – 1 Al Khaleej Saihat

Al Mojzel and Al Khaleej Saihat drew 1-1 in Division 1 on August 20, 2019.

The match was played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Al Majma'ah.