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Al Minaa Basra vs Zakho — Iraqi League 2020

Al Minaa Basra
Al Minaa Basra
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Zakho
Zakho
6/21/2021Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 32Al Faihaa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Al Minaa Basra34%
×Draw30%
Zakho36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Minaa Basra
1.05
Zakho
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 109 away

creates per match

Al Minaa Basra
1.16
Zakho
1.02

allows per match

Al Minaa Basra
1.17
Zakho
0.95

finishing

Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par
Zakho+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Minaa Basra ↓

Zakho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Minaa Basra or draw
64%
Al Minaa Basra or Zakho
70%
Draw or Zakho
66%

Winning margin

Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+
13%
Zakho wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals
65%
Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals
28%
Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals
9%
Zakho 1+ goals
66%
Zakho 2+ goals
30%
Zakho 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)
49%
Zakho (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Minaa Basra at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

Zakho away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.95 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Minaa Basra attack 1.16 + Zakho defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Zakho attack 1.02 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Minaa Basra scores more
34%
level
30%
Zakho scores more
36%

Zakho at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Zakho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Minaa Basra vs Zakho

Al Minaa Basra beat Zakho 3-1 in Iraqi League on June 21, 2021.

The match was played at Al Faihaa Stadium in Basra.