Al Minaa Basra 0–1 Naft Al-Janoob: Result & Stats

Al Minaa Basra

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Naft Al-Janoob

2/14/2022

Iraqi League · Round 21Al Faihaa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Al Minaa Basra40%

×Draw29%

Naft Al-Janoob31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Minaa BasraExpected goals in this matchNaft Al-Janoob

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.02

Al Minaa Basra

1.20

Naft Al-Janoob

1.02

Al Minaa Basra creates 18% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 93 away

1.16

creates per match

0.88

1.17

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Al Minaa Basra

1.16

Naft Al-Janoob

0.88

allows per match

Al Minaa Basra

1.17

Naft Al-Janoob

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par

Naft Al-Janoob+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Minaa Basra ↓

Naft Al-Janoob →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Al Minaa Basra or draw

69%

Al Minaa Basra or Naft Al-Janoob

71%

Draw or Naft Al-Janoob

60%

Winning margin

Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+

17%

Naft Al-Janoob wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals

70%

Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals

34%

Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals

12%

Naft Al-Janoob 1+ goals

64%

Naft Al-Janoob 2+ goals

27%

Naft Al-Janoob 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)

56%

Naft Al-Janoob (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Minaa Basra at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

Naft Al-Janoob away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.24 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Minaa Basra attack 1.16 + Naft Al-Janoob defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.20

Naft Al-Janoob attack 0.88 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Minaa Basra scores more

40%

level

29%

Naft Al-Janoob scores more

31%

Al Minaa Basra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Minaa Basra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff