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Al Minaa Basra vs Mosul — Iraqi League 2022

Al Minaa Basra
Al Minaa Basra
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mosul
Mosul
Z. Al-Abidin Jasim 57'
5/20/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Minaa Basra33%
×Draw28%
Mosul39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Minaa Basra
1.14
Mosul
1.26

Mosul creates 11% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 19 away

creates per match

Al Minaa Basra
1.16
Mosul
1.26

allows per match

Al Minaa Basra
1.26
Mosul
1.11

finishing

Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par
Mosul+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Minaa Basra ↓

Mosul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Minaa Basra or draw
61%
Al Minaa Basra or Mosul
72%
Draw or Mosul
67%

Winning margin

Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+
14%
Mosul wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals
68%
Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals
32%
Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals
11%
Mosul 1+ goals
72%
Mosul 2+ goals
36%
Mosul 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)
46%
Mosul (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Minaa Basra at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.26 · 58 matches

Mosul away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Minaa Basra attack 1.16 + Mosul defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Mosul attack 1.26 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Minaa Basra scores more
33%
level
28%
Mosul scores more
39%

Mosul at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mosul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
I. Atiemwen
57'
Z. Al-Abidin Jasim

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Minaa Basra 1–0 Mosul

Al Minaa Basra beat Mosul 1-0 in Iraqi League on May 20, 2026.

Goals: Z. Al-Abidin Jasim (57').