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Al Minaa Basra vs Al-Qasim — Iraqi League 2025

Al Minaa Basra
Al Minaa Basra
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Qasim
Al-Qasim
A. Azzawi 66', 23'
10/31/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Al Minaa Basra46%
×Draw28%
Al-Qasim26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Minaa Basra
1.31
Al-Qasim
0.91

Al Minaa Basra creates 44% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 42 away

creates per match

Al Minaa Basra
1.02
Al-Qasim
0.69

allows per match

Al Minaa Basra
1.12
Al-Qasim
1.60

finishing

Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par
Al-Qasim+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Minaa Basra ↓

Al-Qasim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Minaa Basra or draw
74%
Al Minaa Basra or Al-Qasim
72%
Draw or Al-Qasim
54%

Winning margin

Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+
21%
Al-Qasim wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals
73%
Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals
38%
Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals
14%
Al-Qasim 1+ goals
60%
Al-Qasim 2+ goals
23%
Al-Qasim 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)
64%
Al-Qasim (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Minaa Basra at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.12 · 41 matches

Al-Qasim away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.60 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Minaa Basra attack 1.02 + Al-Qasim defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.31

Al-Qasim attack 0.69 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Minaa Basra scores more
46%
level
28%
Al-Qasim scores more
26%

Al Minaa Basra at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Minaa Basra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
A. Azzawi
25'
H. Khalaf
66'
A. Azzawi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Minaa Basra 2–0 Al-Qasim

Al Minaa Basra beat Al-Qasim 2-0 in Iraqi League on October 31, 2025.

Goals: A. Azzawi (23', 66').