Al Minaa Basra 2–2 Al Karkh: Result & Stats

Al Minaa Basra

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Al Karkh

12/12/2020

Iraqi League · Round 8Basra Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Al Minaa Basra36%

×Draw29%

Al Karkh35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Minaa BasraExpected goals in this matchAl Karkh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.09

Al Minaa Basra

1.11

Al Karkh

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 108 away

1.16

creates per match

1.02

1.17

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Al Minaa Basra

1.16

Al Karkh

1.02

allows per match

Al Minaa Basra

1.17

Al Karkh

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par

Al Karkh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Minaa Basra ↓

Al Karkh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Al Minaa Basra or draw

65%

Al Minaa Basra or Al Karkh

71%

Draw or Al Karkh

64%

Winning margin

Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+

15%

Al Karkh wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals

67%

Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals

30%

Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals

10%

Al Karkh 1+ goals

66%

Al Karkh 2+ goals

30%

Al Karkh 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)

51%

Al Karkh (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Minaa Basra at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

Al Karkh away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.07 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Minaa Basra attack 1.16 + Al Karkh defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Al Karkh attack 1.02 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Minaa Basra scores more

36%

level

29%

Al Karkh scores more

35%

Al Minaa Basra at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Minaa Basra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff