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Al Karkh vs Al Minaa Basra — Iraqi League 2021

Al Karkh
Al Karkh
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Minaa Basra
Al Minaa Basra
B. Okor 58'
Ala'a Abdul Zahra 60'
5/14/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 33Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Al Karkh41%
×Draw29%
Al Minaa Basra30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Karkh
1.23
Al Minaa Basra
1.00

Al Karkh creates 23% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 91 away

creates per match

Al Karkh
1.05
Al Minaa Basra
0.86

allows per match

Al Karkh
1.14
Al Minaa Basra
1.42

finishing

Al Karkh+0.00on par
Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Karkh ↓

Al Minaa Basra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Karkh or draw
70%
Al Karkh or Al Minaa Basra
71%
Draw or Al Minaa Basra
59%

Winning margin

Al Karkh wins by 2+
18%
Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Karkh 1+ goals
71%
Al Karkh 2+ goals
35%
Al Karkh 3+ goals
13%
Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals
63%
Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals
26%
Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Karkh (draw refunded)
58%
Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Karkh at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

Al Minaa Basra away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.42 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Karkh attack 1.05 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Al Minaa Basra attack 0.86 + Al Karkh defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Karkh scores more
41%
level
29%
Al Minaa Basra scores more
30%

Al Karkh at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Karkh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'
B. Okor
60'
Ala'a Abdul Zahra

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Karkh vs Al Minaa Basra

Al Karkh and Al Minaa Basra drew 1-1 in Iraqi League on May 14, 2025.

Goals: B. Okor (58'), Ala'a Abdul Zahra (60').

The match was played at Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium in Baghdād.