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Al Merreikh vs Garde Nationale — Premier League 2020

Al Merreikh
Al Merreikh
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Garde Nationale
Garde Nationale
1/6/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Al Merreikh41%
×Draw30%
Garde Nationale30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Merreikh
1.17
Garde Nationale
0.95

Al Merreikh creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 64 away

creates per match

Al Merreikh
1.33
Garde Nationale
0.89

allows per match

Al Merreikh
1.00
Garde Nationale
1.00

finishing

Al Merreikh+0.00on par
Garde Nationale+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Merreikh ↓

Garde Nationale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Merreikh or draw
70%
Al Merreikh or Garde Nationale
70%
Draw or Garde Nationale
59%

Winning margin

Al Merreikh wins by 2+
17%
Garde Nationale wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Merreikh 1+ goals
69%
Al Merreikh 2+ goals
33%
Al Merreikh 3+ goals
11%
Garde Nationale 1+ goals
61%
Garde Nationale 2+ goals
25%
Garde Nationale 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Merreikh (draw refunded)
58%
Garde Nationale (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Merreikh at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Garde Nationale away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.00 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Merreikh attack 1.33 + Garde Nationale defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Garde Nationale attack 0.89 + Al Merreikh defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Merreikh scores more
41%
level
30%
Garde Nationale scores more
30%

Al Merreikh at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Merreikh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Merreikh vs Garde Nationale

Garde Nationale beat Al Merreikh 1-0 in Premier League on January 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.