Al Merreikh 1–1 ES Tunis: Result & Stats

Al Merreikh

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

ES Tunis

3/17/2023

CAF Champions League · Group D - 5Martyrs of February Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Al Merreikh39%

×Draw31%

ES Tunis31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al MerreikhExpected goals in this matchES Tunis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.92

Al Merreikh

1.07

ES Tunis

0.92

Al Merreikh creates 16% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 40 away

1.24

creates per match

1.02

0.81

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Al Merreikh

1.24

ES Tunis

1.02

allows per match

Al Merreikh

0.81

ES Tunis

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Merreikh+0.00on par

ES Tunis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Merreikh ↓

ES Tunis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Al Merreikh or draw

69%

Al Merreikh or ES Tunis

69%

Draw or ES Tunis

61%

Winning margin

Al Merreikh wins by 2+

15%

ES Tunis wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Al Merreikh 1+ goals

66%

Al Merreikh 2+ goals

29%

Al Merreikh 3+ goals

9%

ES Tunis 1+ goals

60%

ES Tunis 2+ goals

23%

ES Tunis 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Al Merreikh (draw refunded)

56%

ES Tunis (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Merreikh at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

ES Tunis away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Merreikh attack 1.24 + ES Tunis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.07

ES Tunis attack 1.02 + Al Merreikh defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Merreikh scores more

39%

level

31%

ES Tunis scores more

31%

Al Merreikh at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Merreikh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff