Al Merreikh 2–0 Alamal Atbara: Result & Stats

Al Merreikh

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alamal Atbara

7/22/2022

Sudani Premier League · Round 29Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Al Merreikh60%

×Draw25%

Alamal Atbara16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al MerreikhExpected goals in this matchAlamal Atbara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.67

Al Merreikh

1.59

Alamal Atbara

0.67

Al Merreikh creates 137% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 86 away

1.95

creates per match

0.90

0.44

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Al Merreikh

1.95

Alamal Atbara

0.90

allows per match

Al Merreikh

0.44

Alamal Atbara

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Merreikh+0.00on par

Alamal Atbara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Merreikh ↓

Alamal Atbara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Al Merreikh or draw

84%

Al Merreikh or Alamal Atbara

75%

Draw or Alamal Atbara

40%

Winning margin

Al Merreikh wins by 2+

32%

Alamal Atbara wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Al Merreikh 1+ goals

80%

Al Merreikh 2+ goals

47%

Al Merreikh 3+ goals

21%

Alamal Atbara 1+ goals

49%

Alamal Atbara 2+ goals

15%

Alamal Atbara 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Al Merreikh (draw refunded)

79%

Alamal Atbara (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Merreikh at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.44 · 78 matches

Alamal Atbara away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.24 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Merreikh attack 1.95 + Alamal Atbara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.59

Alamal Atbara attack 0.90 + Al Merreikh defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Al Merreikh scores more

60%

level

25%

Alamal Atbara scores more

16%

Al Merreikh at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Al Merreikh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff