Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Merreikh vs Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Merreikh
Al Merreikh
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
7/10/2025Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Championship Round - 3Stade Al-Amal Atbara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al Merreikh42%
×Draw34%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Merreikh
0.97
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
0.64

Al Merreikh creates 52% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Al Merreikh
0.60
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
1.08

allows per match

Al Merreikh
0.20
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
1.33

finishing

Al Merreikh+0.00on par
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Merreikh ↓

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Al Merreikh or draw
77%
Al Merreikh or Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
66%
Draw or Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
58%

Winning margin

Al Merreikh wins by 2+
16%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al Merreikh 1+ goals
62%
Al Merreikh 2+ goals
25%
Al Merreikh 3+ goals
7%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba 1+ goals
47%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba 2+ goals
14%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al Merreikh (draw refunded)
64%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Merreikh at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Merreikh attack 0.60 + Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.97

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba attack 1.08 + Al Merreikh defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Merreikh scores more
42%
level
34%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba scores more
23%

Al Merreikh at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Merreikh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Merreikh vs Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba

Al Merreikh and Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba drew 0-0 in Sudani Premier League on July 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Al-Amal Atbara in Atbara.