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Al Merreikh vs Al Shorta — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Merreikh
Al Merreikh
CANC
12:00
Al Shorta
Al Shorta
4/26/2023Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Al Merreikh64%
×Draw22%
Al Shorta13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Merreikh
1.80
Al Shorta
0.67

Al Merreikh creates 169% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 83 away

creates per match

Al Merreikh
1.94
Al Shorta
0.89

allows per match

Al Merreikh
0.44
Al Shorta
1.67

finishing

Al Merreikh+0.00on par
Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Merreikh ↓

Al Shorta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Merreikh or draw
87%
Al Merreikh or Al Shorta
78%
Draw or Al Shorta
36%

Winning margin

Al Merreikh wins by 2+
38%
Al Shorta wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Al Merreikh 1+ goals
83%
Al Merreikh 2+ goals
54%
Al Merreikh 3+ goals
27%
Al Shorta 1+ goals
49%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
15%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al Merreikh (draw refunded)
83%
Al Shorta (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Merreikh at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.44 · 77 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.67 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Merreikh attack 1.94 + Al Shorta defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.80

Al Shorta attack 0.89 + Al Merreikh defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Al Merreikh scores more
64%
level
22%
Al Shorta scores more
13%

Al Merreikh at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Al Merreikh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Al Merreikh host Al Shorta

April 26, 2023: Al Merreikh take on Al Shorta in Sudani Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.