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Al Merreikh vs Al-Mergheni — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Merreikh
Al Merreikh
FT
2 – 1
Al-Mergheni
Al-Mergheni
7/16/2025Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Championship Round - 5Stade Al-Merghani Kassala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al Merreikh42%
×Draw37%
Al-Mergheni21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Merreikh
0.88
Al-Mergheni
0.53

Al Merreikh creates 66% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Al Merreikh
0.60
Al-Mergheni
0.85

allows per match

Al Merreikh
0.20
Al-Mergheni
1.15

finishing

Al Merreikh+0.00on par
Al-Mergheni+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Under
  • Under83
  • Over17

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

76%No
  • No76
  • Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Merreikh ↓

Al-Mergheni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–024%
0–113%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (24%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
76%24%1.5
41%59%2.5
17%83%3.5
5%95%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Al Merreikh or draw
79%
Al Merreikh or Al-Mergheni
63%
Draw or Al-Mergheni
58%

Winning margin

Al Merreikh wins by 2+
15%
Al-Mergheni wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al Merreikh 1+ goals
59%
Al Merreikh 2+ goals
22%
Al Merreikh 3+ goals
6%
Al-Mergheni 1+ goals
41%
Al-Mergheni 2+ goals
10%
Al-Mergheni 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Al Merreikh (draw refunded)
67%
Al-Mergheni (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Merreikh at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Al-Mergheni away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Merreikh attack 0.60 + Al-Mergheni defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.88

Al-Mergheni attack 0.85 + Al Merreikh defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Merreikh scores more
42%
level
37%
Al-Mergheni scores more
21%

Al Merreikh at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Merreikh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Merreikh vs Al-Mergheni

Al Merreikh beat Al-Mergheni 2-1 in Sudani Premier League on July 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Al-Merghani Kassala in Kassala.