Al-Merreikh II 5–2 Umm Mughad: Result & Stats

Al-Merreikh II

FT

5 – 2

HT: 4 – 0

Umm Mughad

5/20/2026

Sudani Premier League · Championship Group - 2Al Merreikh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Al-Merreikh II60%

×Draw22%

Umm Mughad18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Merreikh IIExpected goals in this matchUmm Mughad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.93

Al-Merreikh II

1.92

Umm Mughad

0.93

Al-Merreikh II creates 106% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

2.56

creates per match

1.18

0.67

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Al-Merreikh II

2.56

Umm Mughad

1.18

allows per match

Al-Merreikh II

0.67

Umm Mughad

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Merreikh II+0.00on par

Umm Mughad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Merreikh II ↓

Umm Mughad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Al-Merreikh II or draw

82%

Al-Merreikh II or Umm Mughad

78%

Draw or Umm Mughad

40%

Winning margin

Al-Merreikh II wins by 2+

36%

Umm Mughad wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Al-Merreikh II 1+ goals

85%

Al-Merreikh II 2+ goals

57%

Al-Merreikh II 3+ goals

30%

Umm Mughad 1+ goals

61%

Umm Mughad 2+ goals

24%

Umm Mughad 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Al-Merreikh II (draw refunded)

77%

Umm Mughad (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Merreikh II at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Umm Mughad away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Merreikh II attack 2.56 + Umm Mughad defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.92

Umm Mughad attack 1.18 + Al-Merreikh II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Al-Merreikh II scores more

60%

level

22%

Umm Mughad scores more

18%

Al-Merreikh II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Al-Merreikh II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff