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Al-Merreikh II vs Hilal El-Fasher — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al-Merreikh II
Al-Merreikh II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Hilal El-Fasher
Hilal El-Fasher
5/23/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Championship Group - 3Al Merreikh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Al-Merreikh II55%
×Draw24%
Hilal El-Fasher20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Merreikh II
1.68
Hilal El-Fasher
0.91

Al-Merreikh II creates 85% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 20 away

creates per match

Al-Merreikh II
2.56
Hilal El-Fasher
1.15

allows per match

Al-Merreikh II
0.67
Hilal El-Fasher
0.80

finishing

Al-Merreikh II+0.00on par
Hilal El-Fasher+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Merreikh II ↓

Hilal El-Fasher →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al-Merreikh II or draw
80%
Al-Merreikh II or Hilal El-Fasher
76%
Draw or Hilal El-Fasher
45%

Winning margin

Al-Merreikh II wins by 2+
30%
Hilal El-Fasher wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al-Merreikh II 1+ goals
81%
Al-Merreikh II 2+ goals
50%
Al-Merreikh II 3+ goals
24%
Hilal El-Fasher 1+ goals
60%
Hilal El-Fasher 2+ goals
23%
Hilal El-Fasher 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al-Merreikh II (draw refunded)
73%
Hilal El-Fasher (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Merreikh II at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Hilal El-Fasher away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Merreikh II attack 2.56 + Hilal El-Fasher defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.68

Hilal El-Fasher attack 1.15 + Al-Merreikh II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Al-Merreikh II scores more
55%
level
24%
Hilal El-Fasher scores more
20%

Al-Merreikh II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al-Merreikh II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Merreikh II vs Hilal El-Fasher

Al-Merreikh II beat Hilal El-Fasher 2-0 in Sudani Premier League on May 23, 2026.

The match was played at Al Merreikh Stadium in Omdurman.