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Al-Merreikh II vs Hay Al Wadi — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al-Merreikh II
Al-Merreikh II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Hay Al Wadi
Hay Al Wadi
6/1/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Championship Group - 5Al Merreikh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Al-Merreikh II63%
×Draw22%
Hay Al Wadi15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Merreikh II
1.90
Hay Al Wadi
0.79

Al-Merreikh II creates 141% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 21 away

creates per match

Al-Merreikh II
2.56
Hay Al Wadi
0.90

allows per match

Al-Merreikh II
0.67
Hay Al Wadi
1.24

finishing

Al-Merreikh II+0.00on par
Hay Al Wadi+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Merreikh II ↓

Hay Al Wadi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Al-Merreikh II or draw
85%
Al-Merreikh II or Hay Al Wadi
78%
Draw or Hay Al Wadi
37%

Winning margin

Al-Merreikh II wins by 2+
38%
Hay Al Wadi wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Al-Merreikh II 1+ goals
85%
Al-Merreikh II 2+ goals
56%
Al-Merreikh II 3+ goals
29%
Hay Al Wadi 1+ goals
55%
Hay Al Wadi 2+ goals
19%
Hay Al Wadi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al-Merreikh II (draw refunded)
81%
Hay Al Wadi (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Merreikh II at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Hay Al Wadi away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Merreikh II attack 2.56 + Hay Al Wadi defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.90

Hay Al Wadi attack 0.90 + Al-Merreikh II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Al-Merreikh II scores more
63%
level
22%
Hay Al Wadi scores more
15%

Al-Merreikh II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Al-Merreikh II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Merreikh II vs Hay Al Wadi

Al-Merreikh II beat Hay Al Wadi 4-0 in Sudani Premier League on June 1, 2026.

The match was played at Al Merreikh Stadium in Omdurman.