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Al-Merreikh II vs Al Saham Ad Damer — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al-Merreikh II
Al-Merreikh II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Al Saham Ad Damer
Al Saham Ad Damer
1/8/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 1Al Hilal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al-Merreikh II52%
×Draw23%
Al Saham Ad Damer24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Merreikh II
1.78
Al Saham Ad Damer
1.14

Al-Merreikh II creates 56% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Al-Merreikh II
2.56
Al Saham Ad Damer
1.60

allows per match

Al-Merreikh II
0.67
Al Saham Ad Damer
1.00

finishing

Al-Merreikh II+0.00on par
Al Saham Ad Damer+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Merreikh II ↓

Al Saham Ad Damer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Al-Merreikh II or draw
76%
Al-Merreikh II or Al Saham Ad Damer
77%
Draw or Al Saham Ad Damer
48%

Winning margin

Al-Merreikh II wins by 2+
29%
Al Saham Ad Damer wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al-Merreikh II 1+ goals
83%
Al-Merreikh II 2+ goals
53%
Al-Merreikh II 3+ goals
26%
Al Saham Ad Damer 1+ goals
68%
Al Saham Ad Damer 2+ goals
32%
Al Saham Ad Damer 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al-Merreikh II (draw refunded)
68%
Al Saham Ad Damer (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Merreikh II at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Al Saham Ad Damer away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Merreikh II attack 2.56 + Al Saham Ad Damer defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

Al Saham Ad Damer attack 1.60 + Al-Merreikh II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Al-Merreikh II scores more
52%
level
23%
Al Saham Ad Damer scores more
24%

Al-Merreikh II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al-Merreikh II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al-Merreikh II 2–2 Al Saham Ad Damer

Al-Merreikh II and Al Saham Ad Damer drew 2-2 in Sudani Premier League on January 8, 2026.

The match was played at Al Hilal Stadium in Omdurman.