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Al-Merreikh II vs Al-Hilal Omdurman II — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al-Merreikh II
Al-Merreikh II
ABD
13:45
Al-Hilal Omdurman II
Al-Hilal Omdurman II
6/6/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Al-Merreikh II37%
×Draw26%
Al-Hilal Omdurman II37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Merreikh II
1.35
Al-Hilal Omdurman II
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Al-Merreikh II
2.56
Al-Hilal Omdurman II
2.00

allows per match

Al-Merreikh II
0.67
Al-Hilal Omdurman II
0.14

finishing

Al-Merreikh II+0.00on par
Al-Hilal Omdurman II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Merreikh II ↓

Al-Hilal Omdurman II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Al-Merreikh II or draw
63%
Al-Merreikh II or Al-Hilal Omdurman II
74%
Draw or Al-Hilal Omdurman II
63%

Winning margin

Al-Merreikh II wins by 2+
17%
Al-Hilal Omdurman II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al-Merreikh II 1+ goals
74%
Al-Merreikh II 2+ goals
39%
Al-Merreikh II 3+ goals
15%
Al-Hilal Omdurman II 1+ goals
74%
Al-Hilal Omdurman II 2+ goals
38%
Al-Hilal Omdurman II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al-Merreikh II (draw refunded)
51%
Al-Hilal Omdurman II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Merreikh II at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Al-Hilal Omdurman II away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Merreikh II attack 2.56 + Al-Hilal Omdurman II defence 0.14 → ÷2 → 1.35

Al-Hilal Omdurman II attack 2.00 + Al-Merreikh II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al-Merreikh II scores more
37%
level
26%
Al-Hilal Omdurman II scores more
37%

Al-Merreikh II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al-Merreikh II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al-Merreikh II vs Al-Hilal Omdurman II — Match Preview

Al-Merreikh II face Al-Hilal Omdurman II on June 6, 2026 in this Sudani Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.