Al Merreikh El Obeid 1–3 Hilal El-Fasher

Al Merreikh El Obeid

FT

1 – 3

Hilal El-Fasher

2/5/2026

Sudani Premier League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Al Merreikh El Obeid30%

×Draw27%

Hilal El-Fasher43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Merreikh El ObeidExpected goals in this matchHilal El-Fasher

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.36

Al Merreikh El Obeid

1.08

Hilal El-Fasher

1.36

Hilal El-Fasher creates 26% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 18 away

1.33

creates per match

1.22

1.50

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Al Merreikh El Obeid

1.33

Hilal El-Fasher

1.22

allows per match

Al Merreikh El Obeid

1.50

Hilal El-Fasher

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Merreikh El Obeid+0.00on par

Hilal El-Fasher+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Merreikh El Obeid ↓

Hilal El-Fasher →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Al Merreikh El Obeid or draw

57%

Al Merreikh El Obeid or Hilal El-Fasher

73%

Draw or Hilal El-Fasher

70%

Winning margin

Al Merreikh El Obeid wins by 2+

12%

Hilal El-Fasher wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Al Merreikh El Obeid 1+ goals

66%

Al Merreikh El Obeid 2+ goals

29%

Al Merreikh El Obeid 3+ goals

10%

Hilal El-Fasher 1+ goals

74%

Hilal El-Fasher 2+ goals

39%

Hilal El-Fasher 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Al Merreikh El Obeid (draw refunded)

41%

Hilal El-Fasher (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Merreikh El Obeid at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Hilal El-Fasher away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Merreikh El Obeid attack 1.33 + Hilal El-Fasher defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Hilal El-Fasher attack 1.22 + Al Merreikh El Obeid defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Merreikh El Obeid scores more

30%

level

27%

Hilal El-Fasher scores more

43%

Hilal El-Fasher at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hilal El-Fasher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff