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Al Merreikh El Obeid vs Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Merreikh El Obeid
Al Merreikh El Obeid
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
1/24/2025Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 4Kosti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Al Merreikh El Obeid38%
×Draw26%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Merreikh El Obeid
1.33
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

Al Merreikh El Obeid
1.33
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
1.08

allows per match

Al Merreikh El Obeid
1.50
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
1.33

finishing

Al Merreikh El Obeid+0.00on par
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Merreikh El Obeid ↓

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Merreikh El Obeid or draw
64%
Al Merreikh El Obeid or Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
74%
Draw or Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
62%

Winning margin

Al Merreikh El Obeid wins by 2+
17%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Merreikh El Obeid 1+ goals
74%
Al Merreikh El Obeid 2+ goals
38%
Al Merreikh El Obeid 3+ goals
15%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba 1+ goals
72%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba 2+ goals
37%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al Merreikh El Obeid (draw refunded)
51%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Merreikh El Obeid at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Merreikh El Obeid attack 1.33 + Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba attack 1.08 + Al Merreikh El Obeid defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Merreikh El Obeid scores more
38%
level
26%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba scores more
36%

Al Merreikh El Obeid at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Merreikh El Obeid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Merreikh El Obeid vs Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba beat Al Merreikh El Obeid 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on January 24, 2025.

The match was played at Kosti Stadium in Kosti.