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Al Merreikh El Obeid vs Al Rabta Kosti — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Merreikh El Obeid
Al Merreikh El Obeid
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Rabta Kosti
Al Rabta Kosti
2/18/2025Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 10Rabak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Al Merreikh El Obeid39%
×Draw29%
Al Rabta Kosti33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Merreikh El Obeid
1.20
Al Rabta Kosti
1.07

Al Merreikh El Obeid creates 12% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 17 away

creates per match

Al Merreikh El Obeid
1.33
Al Rabta Kosti
0.65

allows per match

Al Merreikh El Obeid
1.50
Al Rabta Kosti
1.06

finishing

Al Merreikh El Obeid+0.00on par
Al Rabta Kosti+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Merreikh El Obeid ↓

Al Rabta Kosti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Merreikh El Obeid or draw
67%
Al Merreikh El Obeid or Al Rabta Kosti
71%
Draw or Al Rabta Kosti
61%

Winning margin

Al Merreikh El Obeid wins by 2+
17%
Al Rabta Kosti wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al Merreikh El Obeid 1+ goals
70%
Al Merreikh El Obeid 2+ goals
34%
Al Merreikh El Obeid 3+ goals
12%
Al Rabta Kosti 1+ goals
66%
Al Rabta Kosti 2+ goals
29%
Al Rabta Kosti 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Merreikh El Obeid (draw refunded)
55%
Al Rabta Kosti (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Merreikh El Obeid at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Al Rabta Kosti away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Merreikh El Obeid attack 1.33 + Al Rabta Kosti defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Al Rabta Kosti attack 0.65 + Al Merreikh El Obeid defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Merreikh El Obeid scores more
39%
level
29%
Al Rabta Kosti scores more
33%

Al Merreikh El Obeid at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Merreikh El Obeid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Merreikh El Obeid 1–0 Al Rabta Kosti

Al Merreikh El Obeid beat Al Rabta Kosti 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on February 18, 2025.

The match was played at Rabak Stadium in Rabak.