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Al Merreikh El Obeid vs Al Ahli Wad Medani — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Merreikh El Obeid
Al Merreikh El Obeid
FT
0 – 1
Al Ahli Wad Medani
Al Ahli Wad Medani
7/16/2025Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Championship Round - 5Stade Al-Merghani Kassala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Al Merreikh El Obeid34%
×Draw27%
Al Ahli Wad Medani40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Merreikh El Obeid
1.22
Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.34

Al Ahli Wad Medani creates 10% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 21 away

creates per match

Al Merreikh El Obeid
1.33
Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.19

allows per match

Al Merreikh El Obeid
1.50
Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.10

finishing

Al Merreikh El Obeid+0.00on par
Al Ahli Wad Medani+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Merreikh El Obeid ↓

Al Ahli Wad Medani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Merreikh El Obeid or draw
60%
Al Merreikh El Obeid or Al Ahli Wad Medani
73%
Draw or Al Ahli Wad Medani
66%

Winning margin

Al Merreikh El Obeid wins by 2+
14%
Al Ahli Wad Medani wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Al Merreikh El Obeid 1+ goals
70%
Al Merreikh El Obeid 2+ goals
34%
Al Merreikh El Obeid 3+ goals
12%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 1+ goals
74%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 2+ goals
39%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al Merreikh El Obeid (draw refunded)
46%
Al Ahli Wad Medani (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Merreikh El Obeid at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Al Ahli Wad Medani away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Merreikh El Obeid attack 1.33 + Al Ahli Wad Medani defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

Al Ahli Wad Medani attack 1.19 + Al Merreikh El Obeid defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Merreikh El Obeid scores more
34%
level
27%
Al Ahli Wad Medani scores more
40%

Al Ahli Wad Medani at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Ahli Wad Medani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Merreikh El Obeid 0–1 Al Ahli Wad Medani

Al Ahli Wad Medani beat Al Merreikh El Obeid 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on July 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Al-Merghani Kassala in Kassala.