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Al-Mergheni vs Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al-Mergheni
Al-Mergheni
FT
0 – 3
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
7/19/2025Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Championship Round - 6Al-Gadarf Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Al-Mergheni36%
×Draw29%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Mergheni
1.13
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

Al-Mergheni
0.92
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
1.08

allows per match

Al-Mergheni
1.17
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
1.33

finishing

Al-Mergheni+0.00on par
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Mergheni ↓

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al-Mergheni or draw
64%
Al-Mergheni or Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
71%
Draw or Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba
64%

Winning margin

Al-Mergheni wins by 2+
15%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al-Mergheni 1+ goals
68%
Al-Mergheni 2+ goals
31%
Al-Mergheni 3+ goals
11%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba 1+ goals
68%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba 2+ goals
31%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al-Mergheni (draw refunded)
50%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Mergheni at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Mergheni attack 0.92 + Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba attack 1.08 + Al-Mergheni defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al-Mergheni scores more
36%
level
29%
Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba scores more
36%

Al-Mergheni at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al-Mergheni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al-Mergheni 0–3 Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba

Al Zamala Umm Ruwaba beat Al-Mergheni 3-0 in Sudani Premier League on July 19, 2025.

The match was played at Al-Gadarf Stadium in Al-Gadarf.