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Al-Mergheni vs Al-Hilal Omdurman II — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al-Mergheni
Al-Mergheni
FT
1 – 2
Al-Hilal Omdurman II
Al-Hilal Omdurman II
2/11/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Al-Mergheni12%
×Draw25%
Al-Hilal Omdurman II63%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Mergheni
0.53
Al-Hilal Omdurman II
1.58

Al-Hilal Omdurman II creates 198% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

creates per match

Al-Mergheni
0.92
Al-Hilal Omdurman II
2.00

allows per match

Al-Mergheni
1.17
Al-Hilal Omdurman II
0.14

finishing

Al-Mergheni+0.00on par
Al-Hilal Omdurman II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Mergheni ↓

Al-Hilal Omdurman II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–119%
0–215%
0–38%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al-Mergheni or draw
37%
Al-Mergheni or Al-Hilal Omdurman II
75%
Draw or Al-Hilal Omdurman II
88%

Winning margin

Al-Mergheni wins by 2+
3%
Al-Hilal Omdurman II wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Al-Mergheni 1+ goals
41%
Al-Mergheni 2+ goals
10%
Al-Mergheni 3+ goals
2%
Al-Hilal Omdurman II 1+ goals
79%
Al-Hilal Omdurman II 2+ goals
47%
Al-Hilal Omdurman II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Al-Mergheni (draw refunded)
16%
Al-Hilal Omdurman II (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Mergheni at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Al-Hilal Omdurman II away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Mergheni attack 0.92 + Al-Hilal Omdurman II defence 0.14 → ÷2 → 0.53

Al-Hilal Omdurman II attack 2.00 + Al-Mergheni defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Al-Mergheni scores more
12%
level
25%
Al-Hilal Omdurman II scores more
63%

Al-Hilal Omdurman II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Al-Hilal Omdurman II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Mergheni vs Al-Hilal Omdurman II

Al-Hilal Omdurman II beat Al-Mergheni 2-1 in Sudani Premier League on February 11, 2026.