Al Masry 5–3 Nogoom El Mostakbal FC: Result & Stats

Al Masry

FT

5 – 3

HT: 3 – 0

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC

9/11/2018

Premier League · Round 6Borg El Arab Stadium (Borg El Arab)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Masry44%

×Draw27%

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al MasryExpected goals in this matchNogoom El Mostakbal FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.10

Al Masry

1.40

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC

1.10

Al Masry creates 27% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 17 away

1.20

creates per match

1.12

1.08

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Al Masry

1.20

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC

1.12

allows per match

Al Masry

1.08

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Masry+0.00on par

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Masry ↓

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Al Masry or draw

70%

Al Masry or Nogoom El Mostakbal FC

73%

Draw or Nogoom El Mostakbal FC

56%

Winning margin

Al Masry wins by 2+

21%

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Al Masry 1+ goals

75%

Al Masry 2+ goals

41%

Al Masry 3+ goals

17%

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 1+ goals

67%

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 2+ goals

30%

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Al Masry (draw refunded)

60%

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Masry at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.08 · 128 matches

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Masry attack 1.20 + Nogoom El Mostakbal FC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC attack 1.12 + Al Masry defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Masry scores more

44%

level

27%

Nogoom El Mostakbal FC scores more

30%

Al Masry at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Masry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff