AL Masry 4–0 Kahraba Ismailia: Result & Stats

AL Masry

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kahraba Ismailia

A. Deghmoum 89'

O. El Saaiy 79'

M. Koshary 74' (OG)

S. Mohsen 68' (pen)

8/31/2025

Premier League · Round 5Borg El Arab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

AL Masry35%

×Draw29%

Kahraba Ismailia36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AL MasryExpected goals in this matchKahraba Ismailia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.15

AL Masry

1.13

Kahraba Ismailia

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 125 home / 14 away

1.18

creates per match

1.21

1.08

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

AL Masry

1.18

Kahraba Ismailia

1.21

allows per match

AL Masry

1.08

Kahraba Ismailia

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AL Masry+0.00on par

Kahraba Ismailia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AL Masry ↓

Kahraba Ismailia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

AL Masry or draw

64%

AL Masry or Kahraba Ismailia

71%

Draw or Kahraba Ismailia

65%

Winning margin

AL Masry wins by 2+

14%

Kahraba Ismailia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

AL Masry 1+ goals

68%

AL Masry 2+ goals

31%

AL Masry 3+ goals

11%

Kahraba Ismailia 1+ goals

68%

Kahraba Ismailia 2+ goals

32%

Kahraba Ismailia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

AL Masry (draw refunded)

49%

Kahraba Ismailia (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AL Masry at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.08 · 125 matches

Kahraba Ismailia away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AL Masry attack 1.18 + Kahraba Ismailia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Kahraba Ismailia attack 1.21 + AL Masry defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

AL Masry scores more

35%

level

29%

Kahraba Ismailia scores more

36%

Kahraba Ismailia at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Kahraba Ismailia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

43'

45+4'

46'

49'

67'

68'

S. Elkhashab← I. Awad

68'

S. MohsenPenalty

71'

M. Medhat

72'

M. Said← E. S. Shika M.

74'

M. KosharyOwn goal

75'

H. Ali← A. El Saadawy

75'

M. Gaber← M. Temine

79'

O. El Saaiy↳ A. Deghmoum

81'

K. El Eraki← A. Eid

81'

K. Bambo← S. Mohsen

86'

A. Ibrahim← M. Hany

86'

K. Ashraf← A. Sulieman

89'

A. Deghmoum↳ M. Makhlouf

AL

Kahraba

31

Gabry

7

🥅

3

8

66

17

▼

Ounajem

6

Sillah

4

▼

Awad

15

▼

Hany

29

▼

M.

13

▼

Sulieman

1

Tharwat

4

▼

Eid

13

▼

14

2

5

25

▼

Temine

6

A

Makhlouf

9

⚽

▼

Mohsen

40

▼

Ali

30

⚽A

Deghmoum

Manager: Nabil Kouki

67'▲O. El Saaiy←▼A. Ali

75'▲H. Ali←▼A. El Saadawy

75'▲M. Gaber←▼M. Temine

81'▲K. El Eraki←▼A. Eid

81'▲K. Bambo←▼S. Mohsen

AL Masry substitutes

16Hamdy3Mansour7Eraki8Ali19Faisal21Mugisha22Gaber33Saaiy10Bambo

Manager: Reda Shehata El Sayed Abou El Naga

46'▲A. Sheta←▼M. Ounajem

68'▲S. Elkhashab←▼I. Awad

72'▲M. Said←▼E. S. Shika M.

86'▲A. Ibrahim←▼M. Hany

86'▲K. Ashraf←▼A. Sulieman

Kahraba Ismailia substitutes

44Ibrahim23Shawky2Yehia5Elkhashab30Shazly12Said18Abdelnaim22Sheta9Ashraf