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AL Masry vs Ismaily SC — League Cup 2021

AL Masry
AL Masryadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ismaily SC
Ismaily SC
A. Yehia 74'
R. Omran 8'
4/29/2023League CupLeague Cup · Quarter-finalsBorg El Arab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

AL Masry40%
×Draw31%
Ismaily SC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AL Masry
1.08
Ismaily SC
0.89

AL Masry creates 21% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

creates per match

AL Masry
1.27
Ismaily SC
0.50

allows per match

AL Masry
1.27
Ismaily SC
0.90

finishing

AL Masry+0.00on par
Ismaily SC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AL Masry ↓

Ismaily SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

AL Masry or draw
70%
AL Masry or Ismaily SC
69%
Draw or Ismaily SC
60%

Winning margin

AL Masry wins by 2+
16%
Ismaily SC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

AL Masry 1+ goals
66%
AL Masry 2+ goals
29%
AL Masry 3+ goals
10%
Ismaily SC 1+ goals
59%
Ismaily SC 2+ goals
22%
Ismaily SC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

AL Masry (draw refunded)
57%
Ismaily SC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AL Masry at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Ismaily SC away — creates 0.50, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AL Masry attack 1.27 + Ismaily SC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.08

Ismaily SC attack 0.50 + AL Masry defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

AL Masry scores more
40%
level
31%
Ismaily SC scores more
30%

AL Masry at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AL Masry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
R. Omran
43'
R. Omran
45'
M. Desouki
45+6'
45+7'
54'
S. Gomaa← S. Gomaa
60'
M. Hamdi← M. Grendo
60'
I. Ateia← A. Yehia
63'
F. Chaouat← M. Shabrawy
69'
E. Tharwat
71'
A. Moussa
74'
A. Yehia↳ E. Tharwat
79'
S. Aka
82'
A. Magdi← Y. Annor
82'
M. Hassan← A. Madbouli
90+1'
E. Jelassi← A. Deghmoum
90+1'
R. Omran← H. Ali

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: AL Masry 2–0 Ismaily SC

AL Masry beat Ismaily SC 2-0 in League Cup on April 29, 2023.

Goals: R. Omran (8'), A. Yehia (74').

The match was played at Borg El Arab Stadium in Alexandria.