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AL Masry vs El Mokawloon — Premier League 2018

AL Masry
AL Masry
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
El Mokawloon
El Mokawloon
7/21/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 31Borg El Arab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

AL Masry39%
×Draw28%
El Mokawloon33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AL Masry
1.21
El Mokawloon
1.08

AL Masry creates 12% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 99 away

creates per match

AL Masry
1.20
El Mokawloon
1.08

allows per match

AL Masry
1.08
El Mokawloon
1.23

finishing

AL Masry+0.00on par
El Mokawloon+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AL Masry ↓

El Mokawloon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

AL Masry or draw
67%
AL Masry or El Mokawloon
72%
Draw or El Mokawloon
61%

Winning margin

AL Masry wins by 2+
17%
El Mokawloon wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

AL Masry 1+ goals
70%
AL Masry 2+ goals
34%
AL Masry 3+ goals
12%
El Mokawloon 1+ goals
66%
El Mokawloon 2+ goals
29%
El Mokawloon 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

AL Masry (draw refunded)
54%
El Mokawloon (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AL Masry at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.08 · 128 matches

El Mokawloon away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AL Masry attack 1.20 + El Mokawloon defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

El Mokawloon attack 1.08 + AL Masry defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AL Masry scores more
39%
level
28%
El Mokawloon scores more
33%

AL Masry at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AL Masry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AL Masry 1 – 1 El Mokawloon

AL Masry and El Mokawloon drew 1-1 in Premier League on July 21, 2024.

The match was played at Borg El Arab Stadium in Alexandria.