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AL Masry vs Ceramica Cleopatra — League Cup 2021

AL Masry
AL Masry
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ceramica Cleopatra
Ceramica Cleopatra
Bambo Karim 11'
A. Kendouci 87'
4/5/2025League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 4New Suez Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

AL Masry33%
×Draw28%
Ceramica Cleopatra39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AL Masry
1.14
Ceramica Cleopatra
1.25

Ceramica Cleopatra creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 13 away

creates per match

AL Masry
1.27
Ceramica Cleopatra
1.23

allows per match

AL Masry
1.27
Ceramica Cleopatra
1.00

finishing

AL Masry+0.00on par
Ceramica Cleopatra+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AL Masry ↓

Ceramica Cleopatra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

AL Masry or draw
61%
AL Masry or Ceramica Cleopatra
72%
Draw or Ceramica Cleopatra
67%

Winning margin

AL Masry wins by 2+
14%
Ceramica Cleopatra wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

AL Masry 1+ goals
68%
AL Masry 2+ goals
32%
AL Masry 3+ goals
11%
Ceramica Cleopatra 1+ goals
71%
Ceramica Cleopatra 2+ goals
36%
Ceramica Cleopatra 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

AL Masry (draw refunded)
46%
Ceramica Cleopatra (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AL Masry at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Ceramica Cleopatra away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AL Masry attack 1.27 + Ceramica Cleopatra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Ceramica Cleopatra attack 1.23 + AL Masry defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AL Masry scores more
33%
level
28%
Ceramica Cleopatra scores more
39%

Ceramica Cleopatra at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ceramica Cleopatra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
Bambo Karim
25'
Bambo Karim
36'
A. Abdin
45+5'
A. Samadou
56'
M. Reda← M. Reda
58'
A. El Armouty← A. El Saadawy
64'
Bambo Karim← A. Eid
64'
Salah Mohsen← Salah Mohsen
64'
M. Hamada← B. El Mohamady
65'
Mido Gaber
66'
F. Lakay
69'
F. Lakay← M. Otaka
76'
Y. El Gohary← Y. El Gohary
76'
Body← A. Hany
76'
I. Mohamed← I. Mohamed
76'
A. Belhadji← M. Reda
78'
M. Tony
78'
M. Tony
78'
M. Tony
87'
A. Kendouci
90+6'
Y. Afifi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AL Masry vs Ceramica Cleopatra

AL Masry and Ceramica Cleopatra drew 1-1 in League Cup on April 5, 2025.

Goals: Bambo Karim (11'), A. Kendouci (87').

The match was played at New Suez Stadium in Suez.