AL Masry 0–1 AL Mokawloon: Result & Stats

AL Masry

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

AL Mokawloon

12/12/2019

Premier League · Round 7New Suez Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

AL Masry37%

×Draw30%

AL Mokawloon34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AL MasryExpected goals in this matchAL Mokawloon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.04

AL Masry

1.10

AL Mokawloon

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 128 home / 17 away

1.20

creates per match

1.00

1.08

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

AL Masry

1.20

AL Mokawloon

1.00

allows per match

AL Masry

1.08

AL Mokawloon

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AL Masry+0.00on par

AL Mokawloon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AL Masry ↓

AL Mokawloon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

AL Masry or draw

66%

AL Masry or AL Mokawloon

70%

Draw or AL Mokawloon

63%

Winning margin

AL Masry wins by 2+

15%

AL Mokawloon wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

AL Masry 1+ goals

67%

AL Masry 2+ goals

30%

AL Masry 3+ goals

10%

AL Mokawloon 1+ goals

65%

AL Mokawloon 2+ goals

28%

AL Mokawloon 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

AL Masry (draw refunded)

52%

AL Mokawloon (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AL Masry at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.08 · 128 matches

AL Mokawloon away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AL Masry attack 1.20 + AL Mokawloon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

AL Mokawloon attack 1.00 + AL Masry defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

AL Masry scores more

37%

level

30%

AL Mokawloon scores more

34%

AL Masry at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "AL Masry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff