Al Malaab El Libby 1–1 Majd: Result & Stats

Al Malaab El Libby

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Majd

2/11/2025

Premier League · West - 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al Malaab El Libby43%

×Draw30%

Majd27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Malaab El LibbyExpected goals in this matchMajd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.86

Al Malaab El Libby

1.17

Majd

0.86

Al Malaab El Libby creates 36% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 11 away

0.78

creates per match

0.73

1.00

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Al Malaab El Libby

0.78

Majd

0.73

allows per match

Al Malaab El Libby

1.00

Majd

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Malaab El Libby+0.00on par

Majd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Malaab El Libby ↓

Majd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Al Malaab El Libby or draw

73%

Al Malaab El Libby or Majd

70%

Draw or Majd

57%

Winning margin

Al Malaab El Libby wins by 2+

18%

Majd wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Al Malaab El Libby 1+ goals

69%

Al Malaab El Libby 2+ goals

33%

Al Malaab El Libby 3+ goals

11%

Majd 1+ goals

58%

Majd 2+ goals

21%

Majd 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Al Malaab El Libby (draw refunded)

61%

Majd (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Malaab El Libby at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.00 · 27 matches

Majd away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Malaab El Libby attack 0.78 + Majd defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.17

Majd attack 0.73 + Al Malaab El Libby defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Malaab El Libby scores more

43%

level

30%

Majd scores more

27%

Al Malaab El Libby at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Malaab El Libby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff