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Al Malaab El Libby vs Assabah SC — Premier League 2019

Al Malaab El Libby
Al Malaab El Libby
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Assabah SC
Assabah SC
2/20/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Group A - 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Al Malaab El Libby30%
×Draw34%
Assabah SC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Malaab El Libby
0.78
Assabah SC
0.89

Assabah SC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 9 away

creates per match

Al Malaab El Libby
0.78
Assabah SC
0.78

allows per match

Al Malaab El Libby
1.00
Assabah SC
0.78

finishing

Al Malaab El Libby+0.00on par
Assabah SC+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Malaab El Libby ↓

Assabah SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–117%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Al Malaab El Libby or draw
64%
Al Malaab El Libby or Assabah SC
66%
Draw or Assabah SC
70%

Winning margin

Al Malaab El Libby wins by 2+
9%
Assabah SC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al Malaab El Libby 1+ goals
54%
Al Malaab El Libby 2+ goals
18%
Al Malaab El Libby 3+ goals
4%
Assabah SC 1+ goals
59%
Assabah SC 2+ goals
22%
Assabah SC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Malaab El Libby (draw refunded)
45%
Assabah SC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Malaab El Libby at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.00 · 27 matches

Assabah SC away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Malaab El Libby attack 0.78 + Assabah SC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.78

Assabah SC attack 0.78 + Al Malaab El Libby defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Malaab El Libby scores more
30%
level
34%
Assabah SC scores more
36%

Assabah SC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Assabah SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Malaab El Libby 0–2 Assabah SC

Assabah SC beat Al Malaab El Libby 2-0 in Premier League on February 20, 2026.